Well, it took a hot war in Europe, constrained capital spending by U.S. producers, continued restrictions in OPEC+ production, and ongoing economic recovery from a global pandemic, but it’s finally happened: Brent shot past $100 and even $105/bbl Thursday before dropping in the last hour of trading to settle a hair above $99. Even WTI touched $100/bbl briefly. The market has been buzzing about the prospects for the breach of this threshold since October, coming along with waves of speculative trades, a dozen false starts, and countless pundit predictions. Now that it has happened, what does it mean — other than higher gasoline prices, of course? In the good ole days, high prices would spur production growth that would help bring prices back down — eventually. But this time, things are different. Which begs the #1 question: Will triple-digit oil prices last? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll consider these issues in the context of historical price behavior and what we might expect this time around.

